DEMAND MODEL
Ross APT — Fourier seasonal + macro factors. Test R2: 0.72 | MAE: 3.2%
VIEW
PREDICT FOR MONTH
MACRO FACTORS
Adjust to simulate scenarios
PREDICTION — --
--
--
monthly passengers
vs prior month:--
seasonal component:--
macro adjustment:--
90-DAY OUTLOOK — --
--
vs seasonal baseline
Fed Funds now:--
3mo direction:--
6mo direction:--
12mo direction:--
Fed Funds = 65.5% of 90-day signal.
12-MONTH LEADING INDICATORS
--
discretionary outlook (mid-2027)
CC Delinquency:--
vs baseline:--
Trend:--
Claims (6mo):--
10Y Treasury:--
Floor:20M/mo (immune)
Disc. impact:--
CC delinquency r=-0.64, 12mo lead, FEVD 61%.
ROLLING 12-MONTH VALIDATION
| Month | WTI | Gas | 10yr | Unemp | FedFunds | Predicted | Actual | Error | Error% |
|---|
PREDICTION ERROR
Alaska Airlines Caveat: Higher inelastic base from essential Alaska state service. Pacific-heavy route mix. Alaska/Hawaii tourism peaks differ from US average. |
Industry Term: TSA "throughput" = system-wide enplanements proxy. |
Model: Ridge regression, Fourier harmonics + holiday proximity + macro factors. COVID excluded from training.